摘要
基础设施建设对于区域经济成长具有正向的外部性。本文通过构建一个二级三要素CES生产函数模型,测算基础设施建设投资推动城市经济增长的宏观效益。首先以长沙市为例对相关经济数据进行线性回归分析,发现得到的回归效果并不理想。然后从全国范围内选取六个与长沙市经济特性相差不大的沿江城市与其一起进行了横截面时间序列(Panel data)分析,通过单位根检验和协整分析避免了伪回归的可能。经过Panel data回归分析,所得回归参数测算出来的GDP经过验证与实际GDP值相差并不大,验证了Panel data分析的可行性,最后运用这些回归参数测算出了长沙基础设施建设投资推动长沙经济增长的宏观效益:平均每年的固定资产投资所推动的GDP增长中基础设施建设投资贡献了十个百分点,即基础设施建设投资的主要功能体现在带动产业资本的投入而不是直接推动经济增长。
The construction of infrastructure has positive externality for regional economic growth, so governments at all levels are actively investing or subsidizing in it. This paper constructs a 3 factor-class XV/CES production function model to measure macro-returns of urban economic growth promoted by infrastructure investment. Firstly, we take Changsha as an example to make a linear regression analysis of economic data. It is found that the regression results are unsatisfactory. Then we select other six riverside cities nationwide, whose economic characteristic is similar to that of changsha and make a Panel data analysis of them. Through the unit root tests and cointegration analysis possible spurious regression is avoided. Regression parameter is gained through the analysis of Panel data regression, we have found that there is little difference between estimated GDP and the practical one, which validates the feasibility of Panel data analysis. Finally, these calculating regression parameters are used to measure macro-retruns of Changsha economic growth promoted by infrastructure investment. It is also found that the infrastructure construction investment contribute 10% to average annual GDP growth in fixed asset investment. That is, the main function of infrastructure investment lies in driving industrial capital input rather than contributing directly to economic growth, which is consistent with government macro-control requirements for adjusting economic structure, improving people＇s livelihood, and transforming the pattern of economic growth.
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第11期55-61,共7页
Systems Engineering
基金
长沙市政府公共服务采购项目
