摘要
目的应用时间序列预测模型预测门诊量,旨在建立适用医院的门诊量预测方法和预测模型。方法收集某医院2006年-2010年的月门诊量数据,建立时间序列的预测模型,并用该模型进行预测比对。结果该预测模型预测的下一年的前6个月的门诊量非常接近实际门诊量,最大误差仅为1.54%。预测的2011年该院门诊工作量为2,292,594人次。结论运用时间序列预测模型能够取得很好的预测效果,可以为医院管理提供预案和决策依据。
Objective To analyze and forecast variation trend of outpatients number using time-serial prediction model. Methods The time-serial prediction model was established with monthly outpatients＇ number from 2006 to 2010 in a hospital, and was used in forecasting comparison. Results The forecast results of outpatients＇ number in the first six months in the next year was very dose to actual value, and the maximum error was only 1. 54 %. This model predicted the outpatients＇ number is 2292594 in this hospital in 2011. Conclusion This prediction model could obtain better fore- casting results, so it could be used to provide references for hospital management and decision-making.
出处
《中国病案》
2013年第1期54-56,共3页
Chinese Medical Record
关键词
时间序列预测模型
门诊量
预测
Time-serial prediction model
Outpatients＇ number
Prediction
