摘要
本文采用修改后的戴蒙德模型从微观角度论证了能源消费随着收入的变动而同方向变动的结论,还发现各期能源消费之间存在相互依存性的关系。本文采用1995～2008年我国能源消费与经济增长的面板数据进行实证检验,结果表明,人均GDP变动1%,能源消费将同方向变动0.372222%;本期能源消费量变动1%,滞后期能源消费量将同方向变动0.320371%;经济增长的变动是能源消费变动的单向格兰杰原因。最后,本文根据研究结论提出了相关政策建议。
China is the world＇s largest energy consumption country and is in the ranks of the second-largest economy. Energy is the important material of economic growth, and economic growth affects theenergy consumption. For the aim of scientific development about energy consumption and economy growth, it is necessary for us to do the research. Meanwhile, the research about energy consumption and economic growth is very important in the field of energy economics. From a new perspective, we do research bout it. This paper uses the modified Diamond model to study the relationship between energy consumption and income from a microscopic view. We find energy consumption changes as the change of income. It means the increase of income will lead to the increase of energy consumption. We also find every term energy consumption is interrelated. This term＇s energy consumption increase means the next energy consumption increase. We build a dynamic panel data model using the data of China about energy consumption and economic growth from 1995 to 2008. Then we use panel cointegration test to do the empirical research. We find there is a cointegration relationship between China energy consumption and economic growth. It shows that the per capital GDP changes 1% , energy consumption will change 0. 372222% with the same direction. This conclusion measures the specific quantity relationship between energy consumption and economic growth . And it shows that the current term energy consumption changes 1% , the lag term energy consumption will change 0. 320371% with the same direction. This conclusion measures specific quantity relationship about the terms energy consumption. It demonstrates the inertia characteristic of energy consumption. We can judge that the demand and supply contradiction of energy will intensify. At last Granger cause test shows the economic growth is the Granger cause of the energy consumption . It indicates the pulling effect of economic growth on energy consumption. And it explains the fact that the faster economic growth the more energy consumption. But Granger cause test shows energy consumption is not the Granger cause of economic growth . It indicates the change of energy consumption don＇t cause a big impact to economic growth. It also indicates the policy of energy-saving is correct. Finally, we give some important advices based on our conclusions. First, it is necessary to change the extensive growth mode. The intensive growth mode is our direction and can reduce energy consumption greatly. And the energy shortage contraction can be eased. Second, we should optimize the industry structure and decrease the high energyconsumption proportion. It is necessary to eliminate high energy-consumption industries step by step. Meanwhile, the proportion of low energy-consumption industries should be improved. Third, we should optimize energy consumption structure that improve clear energy consumption proportion and decrease traditional energy consumption proportion. The structure of China energy consumption is very unreasonable. Coal and oil is the main object of energy consumption in China. And it is contrary to the developed countries. Fourth, we should improve energy efficiency by the progress of science and technology. And we also can achieve the policy of energy-saving by it. The level of China sci- ence and technology is low. So there is huge space to improve it as the rapid development of China economy. Although we do lots of work, there are some shortages in the paper. For example, we don＇t do the research about energy consumption and economic growth from area perspective. As a matter of fact, the economy disparity is clear in different areas in China. We can guess the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is different in different areas. And we don＇t do the empirical research from the structure of energy consumption. As a matter of fact, the traditional energy consumption will decrease as the optimization of energy consumption structure. At last, we omit some important variables in empirical test, such as technical level and population scale . These variables can affect the energy consumption . So the conclusions of empirical test may be different . All of these are the author＇s future research directions.
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第1期1-10,共10页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
关键词
能源消费
经济增长
动态面板数据
energy consumption
economic growth
dynamic panel data
