摘要
根据克拉克松的统计数据．新造船手持订单量与船队数量之比曾在2008年一度高达51％，现在（2012年8月克拉克松数据）已经回落至18％。期间，散货船手持订单量与船队数量之比从最高77％降至目前的23％，集装箱船该数据从60％跌落至22％．油船从44％跌至目前13％，LNG船从最高85％降至目前的21％，LPG船手持订单量与船队数量之比从最高45％降至目前的12％。对比2002年下半年．目前各船型新造船手持订单量与船队数量之比似乎又回到了该轮新船投资启动的原点。从历史观察来看，一些船型或已接近接下来的新一轮订造潮来临的临界点。但从国际经济与贸易来看．市场可能还需要一两年才会好转。目前世界经济增速放缓的风险高得令人担忧．世界经济贸易超预期的降温或将使得2013年海运需求仍旧疲软。那么，未来新船投资的动力主要来自哪里？
At present, global unconventional oil outputs exceed 75 million tons, and unconventional knatural gas outputs exceed 180 billion m3. Theglobal growth in oil and gas outputs will mainly be attributed to LNG, oil sand, unconventional natural gas and marine oil-gas resources in the future. The areas with greater growth potential are mainly in the Middle East, West Africa, Russia. Central Asia and North America. In October 2012, Russia drafted up a ＂Shipbuilding Development Project in 2030＂ including an intended investment of 41.8bn dollars （1.3 trillion rubles）, and ＂Continental Shelf Project＂ would become one of the most important projects. At present, China＇s Maritime Power Strategy has been promoted to a rather high level, and new opportunities will be brought by major investment project at the national level, which include marine resource development and continental shelf project.
出处
《中国船检》
2012年第12期57-58,128,共3页
China Ship Survey
