摘要
针对目前常用的配电系统可靠性分析方法无法描述与时间相关的动态事件的现状,提出了基于动态贝叶斯网络的配电系统可靠性分析方法,能够准确地反映元件故障率和修复率的实际取值,能够计算配电系统的故障频率指标和故障持续时间指标,还能够找出系统的薄弱环节。给出了动态贝叶斯网络的相关理论基础,接下来证明了动态贝叶斯网络与马尔科夫过程的等价性,然后建立了能够对配电系统可靠性进行分析的动态贝叶斯网络模型。通过两个算例进行验证。
As the distribution system reliability analysis methods widely used today can＇t describe the status of timerelated dynamic events, this paper presents a reliability analysis method for distribution System based on Dynamic Bayesian Network. Thereby, the actual value of the component failure rates and repair rates can be accurately reflected; the failure frequency and duration of distribution system can be calculated;the weak links of the system can also be identified. At first, this paper introduces the theoretical basis of the Dynamic Bayesian Network, and proves the equivalence between Dynamic Bayesian network and Markov process. Then the Dynamic Bayesian Network model which can analyze the reliability of distribution system is established. Finally the validity of the proposed method is verified by two examples.
出处
《华东电力》
北大核心
2012年第11期1912-1916,共5页
East China Electric Power
基金
国家电网公司科技项目(EPRIPDKJ[2012]3223)~~
关键词
可靠性分析
动态事件
分段开关
保护装置
动态贝叶斯网络
rehability analysis
dynamic events
disconnect switches
protection devices
Dynamic Bayesian Network
