摘要
在深入分析煤炭生产及其相关影响子系统的基础上,结合鄂尔多斯市煤炭生产的具体特点,建立了系统动力学模型并确定了模型中的动力学方程。采用Vensim软件计算得到,年开采增速固定和递减两种情况下的年开采量和环境、资源承载力的变化曲线。计算结果表明,开采增速递减时会明显地延长煤炭资源的有效开采使用时间,同时在这两种开发模式下,环境、资源承载力曲线都会有很明显的拐点,这说明应在该时间前,加强该地区的环保措施,提高该地区的环境、资源的承载力,增强其煤炭工业的可持续发展能力。
Through analyzing the data of coal production and related subsystems, combining with the specific characteristics of coal pro- duction in Ordos, this paper established a system dynamics model and determine the kinetic equations in the model. The curves of annu- al extraction amount and environment carrying capacity have been gained by adopting Vensim software calculation ,which in fixed annual growth rate and in decreased annual growth rate. The results indicate that the effective exploitation of coal resources time will be exten- ding significantly when mining growth decreasing. In addition, the environment carrying capacity curves have obvious inflection point un- der the two development models, which suggest that point in time should take effective measures.
出处
《煤》
2012年第11期1-3,13,共4页
Coal
基金
内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2010MS0702)
内蒙古科技大学创新基金项目(2009NC050)
