摘要
在分析重庆农村居民消费现状的基础上,采用灰色预测模型以及灰色关联分析方法,分析影响消费支出的构成因素的关联程度及次序,并对2012—2014年重庆农村居民消费支出进行预测。结果表明:未来3年重庆市农村居民消费支出仍以较快速度增长,与消费支出灰色关联度最高的三大构成因素依次是居住、衣着、家庭设备用品及服务;重庆农村居民的消费结构有所改善,但是与城镇居民相比其消费结构还有待进一步优化。
Based on the analysis of the current situation of Chongqing＇ s rural residents＇ consump- tion, and by using the grey prediction model and the grey relational analysis method, this paper fore- casts the Chongqing＇ s residents＇ consumption from 2011 to 2014, and analyzes the relevant factors and the degree sequence which affect eight kinds of factors of consumption expenditures. Forecast and analysis show that in the next four years in Chongqing, the rural resident consumption is growing at a faster pace. And the three highest gray relational degree constitute factors in turn are living, and clothing, and family equipment supplies and service. It shows that the consumption structure of Chongqing＇ s rural residents has been improved, but the gap with town residents＇ consumption struc- ture is still very obvious.
出处
《重庆理工大学学报（社会科学）》
CAS
2012年第11期40-46,共7页
Journal of Chongqing University of Technology（Social Science）
关键词
消费支出
灰色预测
灰色关联度、
consumption expenditure
Gray prediction
Gray Relation
