摘要
文章从人口结构变化的角度,以长三角区域为考察对象,揭示了人口在年龄、文化、城乡、产业、失业、职业和性别等方面的结构变化演变特征及其对经济增长的作用机理,并利用1978-2010年面板数据探讨了长三角区域经济增长的人口结构变化因素。研究发现,一是从总体上看,人口结构演变与经济结构调整相对应,人口年龄结构、城乡结构、文化结构和产业结构变化对长三角区域经济增长产生了促进作用,人口职业结构变化则起到了阻碍作用;二是人口结构变化对不同省市经济增长的影响方向和影响大小存在差异;三是随着人口过快增长对生产力的压迫大大减轻,人口的结构性问题开始成为制约长三角区域经济和社会发展的重大现实问题,决策部门应予以高度重视。在解决人口问题时,政府应根据不同地区的经济发展程度实施有差别的调控政策。
From the angle of the changes in population structure, this paper sets Yangtze River Delta as the target area and analyzes the evolution characters of population structure in terms of age,culture,urbanrural duali ty, industry, unemployment, occupation and sex, and their effects on econom ic growth. Then it uses the panel data from 1978 to 2010 to discuss the pop ulation structure factors which give rise to Yangtze River Delta＇s economic growth. It draws the following conclusions： firstly, on the whole, the chan ges in population structure correspond to the adjustment to economic struc ture, and the changes in population age, urbanrural dual, cultural and indus trial structures help support Yangtze River Delta＇s economic growth, while the changes in population occupational structure hold back Yangtze River Delta＇s economic growthl secondly, with regard to different provinces and cities, the effects of the changes in population structure on regional economic growth differ thirdly, as some down pressure of the excessive population growth on productivity has been greatly eased, the population structure has been a big real problem that restricts the economic and social development on Yangtze River Delta, which should attract enough attention from the decisionmaking sectors. When solving the population problem,governments should implement differentiated control policies in accordance with regional economic development.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第12期38-50,共13页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"中国实际经济周期与税收政策效应研究"(11CJL009)
教育部社会科学基金项目"中美经济周期与政策选择的比较研究"(10YJC790105)
关键词
长三角区域
经济增长
人口结构
Yangtze River Delta
economic growth
population struc-ture
