摘要
资本周期也称朱格拉周期,主要是资本支出波动引起的经济波动。随着经济周期四个阶段的演变,大宗商品价格也呈现周期性波动。根据美国的经济周期和大宗商品的实证研究可以发现,国际大宗商品的周期性波动较为明显,在过热、滞胀阶段,能源类大宗商品和工业品的走势出现较为明显的分化,即能源类的收益明显优于工业品。根据中国资本周期和国内大宗商品的波动研究,发现国内大宗商品沪铜和沪胶的周期性较为明显,而大豆的周期性不明显。
Capital cycle,also known as Juglar cycle,is the economic fluctuation caused by fluctuations in capital spending.With the evolution of the four stages of the economic cycle,commodity prices present cyclical fluctuations.It is found from the empirical researches of economic cycles and commodity prices of the USA that the cyclical fluctuations of international commodity prices are quite obvious.When the economy is overheated and falls into stagflation,there is a noticeable differentiated trend of energy commodities and industrial products.The returns of the former are obviously better than those of the latter.Based on the researches of China's capital cycles and commodity prices fluctuation,the domestic commodities Shanghai Copper and Rubber are highly cyclical while soybean is otherwise.
出处
《上海金融》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第11期71-77,共7页
Shanghai Finance
关键词
资本周期
大宗商品价格
格兰杰因果检验
资本支出波动
Capital Cycle
Commodity Prices
Granger Causality Test
Fluctuations in Capital Spending
