摘要
为准确及时判断边坡垮塌事故的原因,研究基于贝叶斯网络不确定性推理原理的土质边坡垮塌事故诊断方法。在系统分析土质边坡垮塌原因的基础上,基于专家的先验知识构建贝叶斯网络结构。利用NETICA软件的案例分析功能分析统计数据,获得节点间的条件概率,从而建立完整的土质边坡垮塌事故分析专家系统。运用专家系统分析某土质边坡垮塌事故原因。专家系统的诊断结果与现场鉴定的结果吻合良好。贝叶斯网络专家系统可以使推理甚至在输入数据不完备的情况下进行,不仅能够应用于边坡垮塌事故分析,也可应用于边坡支护方案的比选。
A method for diagnosing soil slope collapse accident was worked out based on the Bayesian network and corresponding uncertainty reasoning principle.On the basis of analysing the causes of soil slope collapse,a Bayesian model structure was created.By combining worksite data with the case analysis function of NETICA,the conditional probabities densities of system nodes were obtained,and an expert system was built for diagnosis of soil slope collapse accident.The diagnosis results obtained using the expert system agree well with the actual outcomes.The expert system makes it possible to reason on the basis of incomplete input information,it can not only be applied to diagnosis of the collapse accident of soil slope,but also be applied to the selection of sliding resistant systems.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第9期127-132,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
关键词
贝叶斯网络
边坡垮塌
事故诊断
专家系统
条件概率
Bayesian network
slop collapse
accident diagnosis
expert system
conditional probabities
