摘要
面对温室效应日益加剧的趋势,各国政府正在采取措施控制碳排放量。因此,测算本国进出口贸易中隐含碳排放量,并进而探究驱动其变动的因素就显得尤其重要。本文使用投入产出法定量测算了2002年、2005年及2007年中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳排放量,并利用结构分解法将出口贸易隐含碳变化量分解为:规模效应、结构效应、强度(技术)效应。结果发现,中国隐含碳净输出量迅速扩大;规模效应和结构效应对出口贸易隐含碳排放增加起到正向推动作用,而强度(技术)效应对其有负向作用。
After the coming of Green-economy Age, the relationship between international trade and environ- ment has been receiving increasing attention nowadays. With more and more attention of people to the climatic change, the tendency to a lower-carbon economy becomes clearer and clearer. Many countries have implemented the measures related to the ＂Green New Deal＂. The developed nations are attempting to take the opportunity of this multiplication of global crises to gain competitive advantage in the low-carbon economy and leave the less-developed far behind who is running in the road to high-carbon development. Thus, a new wave of green economy, which is characterized by the new energy and low-carbon revolution, is sweeping the globe and becomes an irreversible trend in the field of environmental and development.. China＇s exploration to find out low-carbon development way not only has good uniformity with the world energy trend, but is also consistent with our target to industrial restructuring, transformation of economic growth mode and face of a new round of global green surge, China has the demand of expanding green economy as well as a firm foundation. Therefore, low-carbon economy poses a new topic to our foreign trade. The relationship of energy con- sumption, carbon emissions and economic growth is a complex system. Energy, which is an economic growth factor promotes economic growth, while leding to carbon emissions. In this relationship, the economic growth is the fun- damental problem. So with the dual constraints of energy consumption and carbon emissions, our ability to maintain a sustained economic growth is always of concern to all academics. On this premise, there are many issues such as what laws to comply with for energy consumption and carbon emissions, and what the relationship for China＇s export trade and energy consumption and carbon emissions in the open economy to be resolved. With the growing trend of greenhouse, governments are taking measures to control carbon emissions. There- fore, estimating the embodied carbon emissions during the international trading, and exploring the factors that resolve the amount of embodied carbon variation： scale effects, structural effects, intensity （technology）effects. In conclusion, firstly, Chinese embodied net carbon output expanded rapidly. In 2002, 2005, 2007, China＇s export embodied carbon are 139 million t, 281 million t, 313 million t separately, import embodied carbon are 55 million t, 93 million t, 77 million t, net carbon output are 84 million t, 188 million t, 236 million t. Secondly, scale effects and structure effects play the positive role in promoting exported embodied carbon emissions, intensity（ tech- nical） effect has the negative effect of increased carbon emissions. Using qualitative and quota methods, this paper analyzed the impact of the features of Chinese carbon emis- sions characteristics, reduce emission rules and measures to Chinese export trade. Based on this, this paper com- prehensively analyzed the influence of reduce emission rules and measures in domestic and in international to Chi- nese export trade. Which made a conclusion that the low-carbon economy will drop the scale of Chinese export trade in short term, in long term the result does not decide ; structure of export commodity transform from the labor-inten- sive and resources intensity form to the knowledge and technology-intensive form; the international competitiveness of labor-intensive and resources intensity product will drop, and the international competitiveness of knowledge, technology-intensive product will rise.
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第11期10-18,共9页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
上海对外贸易学院085工程碳排放测量的国际比较"碳排放测量的国际比较"(Z08512013)
关键词
隐含碳
投入产出法
结构分解
embodied carbon
input-output
decomposition
method
