摘要
采用灰色系统理论中GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对区域经济增长进行实证研究。根据吉林省"十一五"期间的有关统计数据建立灰色动态数列预测模型,并对预测模型进行检验,进而通过建立等维新陈代谢模型对吉林省"十二五"期间经济增长情况进行预测和分析,从预测分析结果得出吉林省经济在"十二五"期间将保持平稳较快发展。
In this article, GM （1,1）of gray system theory is advanced to study on regional economic growth. Based on the statistics of ＂1 lth Five-Year＂ of Jilin Province, a gray dynamic series prediction model is formed and tested. Furthermore, an equal-dimensional metabolic model is also formed and applied to predict and ana- lyze the economic growth during ＂12th Five-Year＂ in Jilin Province. The result reveals that the economy will re- main stable and develop rapidly.
出处
《税务与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第6期106-110,共5页
Taxation and Economy
基金
吉林省社会科学基金项目"吉林省经济增长驱动因素分析与预测"(项目编号:2009B356)
关键词
灰色系统理论
区域经济
吉林省
预测模型
gray system theory
regional economy
Jilin Province
prediction model
