摘要
综合运用泰尔熵与Kaya因子分解技术,测度并分解了1990-2009年我国人均CO2排放区域不平等程度。研究表明:(1)中国人均CO2排放的区域不公平程度的下降,主要源于区域能源强度公平因子的贡献,而区域经济差距与产业结构因子的影响呈反向作用;(2)我国人均CO2排放不公平因子的贡献存在区域差异。其中,东部人均CO2排放公平主要受经济差距的影响,中部地区主要受能源强度与产业结构公平因子的影响,而西部地区主要受经济差距与产业结构的影响;(3)区域内部人均CO2排放差距扩大的速度要快于区域之间差距扩大的速度,其中东部地区的不平等程度总体上有所降低,而中西部地区的不平等程度并没有明显的变化。研究认为,未来碳减排目标的分解应综合考虑各地区的未来发展需求与现阶段的减排能力,其关键在于加强共生性能源利用技术的研发和推广,并建立区域能源技术方面的共享机制和扩散机制。
In this paper, regional per capita CO2 emissions decomposition approach using Theil entropy and Kaya factors decomposition technology is introduced for estimating the interpersonal equality of CO2 emission. The results show that the inequality of per capita CO2 emissions obtained economic equality factor and industrial structure and energy intensity equality factors. Further study showed that there is a big regional difference in carbon emissions interpersonal equality, and it presented a growing trend. Among them, the Eastern economic equality index is relatively large for the development needs of carbon emissions, and Central and Western regions industrial structure and energy intensity equality indexes are relatively small, due to their constraints on carbon reduction capacity. Finally, the paper gives some policy suggestions that China~ future carbon emission reduction lies in the development and promotion of symbiotic en- ergy technologies, and the establishment of regional energy technology sharing mechanism and the diffusion mechanism. In addition, the paper indicate that achievements of emissions reduction goals in 2020 and equitable sharing of responsibility, should be considered the various provinces＇historical responsibilities and their current development stages and future development needs.
出处
《科学学研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第11期1662-1670,1661,共10页
Studies in Science of Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71073157)
江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXLX11-0337)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2012LWB19)
关键词
人均二氧化碳排放
区域不平等
测度
泰尔熵指数
Kaya因子分解
per capita carbon dioxide emission
regional inequality
evaluation
Theil entropy coefficient
Kaya factor decomposition
