摘要
生物气溶胶施放源项参数反演是生物气溶胶袭击危害评估的反问题,对危害评估及应急响应具有重要指导意义。本文基于贝叶斯推理方法,利用生物传感器检测数据和正向大气扩散模型,构造似然函数,采用结合Metropolis-Hasting算法的马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(Markov chain Monte Carlo,MCMC)抽样,对施放源位置、高度、施放剂量进行反演。统计分析表明,反演结果和初始源项参数设置吻合非常好,证明了方法的有效性。
The inversion of bioaerosol release source parameters is the inverse problem of hazard assessment of bioaerosol attacks, and is of great significance for hazard assessment and emergency ＂response. Based on observations of biosensors and concentrations predicted by an atmospheric dispersion model, a likelihood function was assigned, with which the Markov chain Monte Carlo （MCMC） sampling based on Bayesian inference was used to invert the source parameters,including the source location, source height, and dispersion strength, statistic analysis shows that the inversion results fit the initial source parameters Very well. The validity of the method is proved.
出处
《军事医学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第10期732-735,共4页
Military Medical Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(90924019)
"艾滋病和病毒性肝炎等重大传染病防治"国家科技重大专项(2008ZX10403)
