摘要
磷是湖泊水体富营养化的主要限制性因素。通过不确定性数学模型计算得出,九寨沟自然保护区箭竹海总磷平衡质量浓度E[ρ(P)]=0.008 mg/L,总可信度为0.864 9;平衡质量浓度小于0.01mg/L的保证率为76%,平衡质量浓度大于0.01 mg/L的概率为15%。与常规方法计算所得结果相比,运用盲数理论处理湖泊水环境系统的不确定性更合理。
This paper aims to present a comprehensive lake-water phosphorus equilibrium concentration model in accordance with the blind math theory to help eliminate such uncertainties and gain credible results. The research work of ours has been based on the monitoring and observation of the water quality data and hydraulic parameter data of the main lake in Jiuzhaigou area for five years while keeping track of the mean value of TP equilibrium concentrations and their reliability for the main lake by applying the equilibrium concentration model based on the blind number math. We have done efforts in trying to derive a fuzzy mathematical model to work out the natural reserve of the area＆rsquo;s Jianzhou （Sinarundinaria nitida, a kind of bamboo） Lake, the results of our model indicate that the total phosphorus equilibrium concentration of E[＆rho;（P）]=0.008 mg/L, whereas the total reliability was 0.864 9, with the equilibrium concentration being less than 0.01 mg/L （the insurance rate is 76%）. In addition, the equilibrium concentration of greater than 0.01 mg/L should be the probability of 15%. As compared with the conventional method, the blind number theory has been applied to deal with the uncertainty of the water environment system of the lake, which helped to make our model more scientific and rational.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第5期130-133,共4页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-11-0710)
关键词
环境学
湖泊
总磷
盲数理论
富营养化
environmental science
lake
phosphorus
blind numbertheory
eutrophication
