摘要
近几年昆明机场的航班飞行流量持续高速增长,航班飞行流量是民航空管的基础数据,是衡量民航空管发展水平的重要指标。本研究旨在根据统计数据,运用统计学的一般方法揭示昆明空域航班飞行流量的变化规律,并做出准确预测,帮助了解昆明航空业的发展趋势。首先对昆明空域航班飞行流量运用了灰色预测模型进行预测,接着建立了残差修正模型进一步提高预测精度,并对未来几年昆明空域的航班飞行流量进行预测。在此基础之上引入了马尔可夫预测理论,建立了昆明空域航班飞行流量的灰色马尔可夫预测模型。应用灰色马尔可夫预测模型预测了未来几年昆明空域的航班飞行流量。通过实例证明灰色马尔可夫模型预测值更准确。最后,依据灰色马尔可夫预测模型计算得出了2015年昆明国际机场的航班飞行流量的预测值。
In recent years, the air traffic flow of Kunming International Airport is growing at an enormous rate,the air traffic flow is a kind of basic data of civil aviation and also an important indicator to measure the development level of civil aviation air traffic management. This article aims to reveal the variation law of the air traffic flow of Kunming by general statistical methods, according the statistical data, and make accurate forecasts. This will help us to understand the trend of Kunming aviation development. The first step is to predict the traffic flow of Kunming with the way of the grey prediction. Then build the residual correction model to advance the precision of prediction, and predict the traffic flow of the next few years. On this basis, based on the theory of Markov prediction, build the grey Markov prediction model. According to the model, the prediction flow of Kunming airport are given, predict the Kunming＇s traffic flow of the next few years. The example proved that the grey Markov prediction model is more accurate. Finally, I calculate the air traffic flow of Kunming international airport in 2015 based on grey Markov prediction model.
出处
《中国民航大学学报》
CAS
2012年第5期5-8,共4页
Journal of Civil Aviation University of China
