摘要
对应急预案进行诊断有利于对预案的修订与完善。从故障诊断角度提出一种预案评估方法。根据预案文本中出现的主、谓、宾等语义故障，建立预案标准故障树；然后依据应急过程将待诊断预案分解成四部分，表示成句子集合的形式；依据故障树，用逻辑推理诊断法对这些句子进行诊断，从而确定预案的具体缺陷。最后采用一个实际的地震预案进行了实例研究，确定其需要加强和完善的方面，并量化地得到该预案的故障率，为修订和完善应急预案提供有针对性的参考依据。
Diagnosing released emergency plans benefits a lot for the revision and improvement of emergency plans. From the perspective of fault diagnosis, this paper proposed a method of evaluating emergency plans. According to the common semantic ＂failures＂ , such as ＂ subject failure＂ , ＂ object failure＂ , ＂ predicate failure＂ occurred in emergency plans, a standard fault tree of emergency plans was established; Then breaking the diagnosed plan down into four parts in line with the contingency task, each part was further broke down into sentences; Afterwards, using logical reasoning diagnosis method to diagnose these sentences based on the standard fault tree in order to find the specific defects of the plan. Finally, a case study was conducted taking an actual earthquake emergency plan as an example. Some aspects needing to be strengthened were found and the fault rate was quantified, which provided specific reference to revise and improve the emergency plan.
出处
《情报学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第10期1096-1104,共9页
Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information
基金
国家自然科学重大研究计划之培育项目“适应灾害时空后果的预案体系有效性及其评估研究”（91024003）
国家自然科学重大研究计划之集成平台项目“突发事件应急准备与应急预案体系研究”（91024031）
教育部博士点基金项目“面向突发事件演化的时空本体模型研究”（20090041110010）
关键词
应急预案
故障树
诊断方法
emergency plan, fault tree, diagnosis method
