摘要
目的联合应用质控图法和趋势分析法,以探索适合于分析腹泻病发病趋势的方法,进而探讨徐州市腹泻病的发病情况,为今后的防控提供科学依据。方法先用质控图法对数据的质量进行评价,再用趋势分析法对2006～2009年徐州市腹泻病例的发病趋势进行分析。结果内科4年累计就诊腹泻病例205 488例。病例多集中在消化内科、肠道门诊、急诊内科和小儿科,共186 728例,占总急性腹泻病例的90.87%。且这4个科室依照腹泻患者由多到少排序依次为小儿科77 206例(37.57%),急诊内科58 336例(28.39%),消化内科49 116例(23.90%),肠道门诊2070例(1.01%);总平均数Χ=4281,上控制限(UCL)=4913.60,下控制限(LCL)=3648.40;极差的总平均数R=868.25,上控制限(UCL)极差=1981.39,下控制限(LCL)极差=0.00。12个均数点(极差点)均在控制限内,无散点落在控制限外,说明系统稳定,亦说明这4年中徐州无腹泻病暴发;2006～2009年腹泻的发病趋势可构成Inverse(逆模型)、Quadratic(二次模型)、Cubic(三次模型)和S(s模型),均具有统计学意义(P=0.00)。但以Cubic模型的决定系数R2最大,R2=0.410,故选取此种线性模型。所得方程为:Yt=3242.72+159.37t-5.82t2+0.06t3。结论质控图法与趋势分析法联合应用能较好地分析出腹泻病发病趋势;徐州市腹泻病例仍以儿童为主导,且2006～2009年腹泻病例数呈波浪式波动,预计2010年腹泻病例数较2009年会有增加。
Objective To explore the method for analyzing diarrhea disease prevalence trends by using the combination ap- proach of quality control chart and trend analysis, and discuss the present status of this disease in Xuzhou. Methods The quality control chart was conducted to evaluate the reliability of data, and the prevalence trends of diarrhea disease from 2006 to 2009 in Xuzhou were analyzed. Results Total 205 488 cases were collected in four years （from 2006 to 2009）. Most cases （total accoun- ted for 90.87% ） were from the department of Gastroenterology （ 23.90% ）, Intestinal Tract Clinic （ 1.01% ）, Emergency medi- cine （28.39） and Pediatrics （37.57）. The general mean was 4281, upper control limit （UCL） was 4913.60, lower control limit （LCL） was 3648.40;The general mean of range was 868.25, UCL range was 1981.39, LCL range was 0.00. The 12 averages were all in the control limit, which indicated that the system was instability and there was no diarrhea disease broking in the four years in Xuzhou. Diarrhea disease prevalence trends from 2006 to 2009 could constitute Inverse, Quadratic, Cubic and S models, and all the models were statistically insignificant （ P -- 0.00 ）. But the largest R2 was of Cubic. So the equation was Y1 = 3242.72 ＋ 159.37t - 5.82t2 ＋ 0.06t3. Conclusion The combination approach of quality control chart and trend analysis can an- alyze the diarrhea disease prevalence trends well;Pediatric patients＇ number is dominated;the number of diarrhea disease from 2006 to 2009 appears wave type ;the number of 2010 is expected higher than 2009.
出处
《中华全科医学》
2012年第11期1677-1678,1742,共3页
Chinese Journal of General Practice
基金
世界卫生组织资助项目(WP/2004/CHN/CSR/1.1/001)
徐州市科技计划项目(200631)
关键词
腹泻病
质控图法
趋势分析
Diarrheal disease
Quality control chart
Trend analysis
