摘要
野外地质地貌调查表明,龙陵-瑞丽断裂(南支)北段是以左旋走滑为主兼具一定正断分量的区域性活动断裂。断裂晚更新世以来的平均水平滑动速率为2.2mm/a,平均垂直滑动速率为0.6mm/a;全新世以来的平均水平滑动速率为1.8—3.0mm/a,平均垂直滑动速率为0.5mm/a。断裂在晚更新世以来的滑动速率在不同的时间尺度上变化不大,反映出该断裂晚更新世以来的活动强度比较稳定。利用Poisson模型、Lognormal模型、BPT模型三种概率模型计算获得未来50a强震发震概率分别是:6.32%、0.08%、0.05%;三种模型分别取权重0.28、0.36、0.36,获得龙陵-瑞丽断裂北段未来50a特征地震发震概率为1.82%。
The field investigation and interpretation of remote images indicate that the last activity along the northern segment of Longling-Ruili fault occurred in the Holocene with a strike-slip rate of 2.2-2.5 mm/a and vertical slip rate of 0.6mm/a since late Pleistocene epoch, and strike-slip rate of 1.8-3.0 mm/a and vertical slip rate of 0.5mm/a during the Holoeene epoch. The occurrence probability of strong earthquakes in 50 years is calculated as 6.32% by Poisson model, 0.08% by Lognormal model and 0.05% by BPT model respectively. Finally, the probability of occurrence of characteristic earthquakes for north section of Longling-Ruili fault is estimated as 1.82% with the weight of 0.28, 0.36 and 0.36 for Poisson model, Lognormal model and BPT model.
出处
《震灾防御技术》
2012年第3期215-226,共12页
Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention
基金
铁道部科技研究开发计划(2008G027-B)
国土资源部深部探测技术与实验研究专项(Sinoprobe-06-04)资助
关键词
龙陵-瑞丽断裂
滑动速率
特征地震
复发间隔
Longling-Ruili fault
Slip rate
Characterized earthquake
Recurrence interval
