摘要
利用四川省盆地区玉米产量资料、生育期资料和相关气象资料,建立了适用于四川省盆地区玉米干旱风险评估的气候干旱风险模型、作物干旱风险模型、产量灾损风险模型、抗灾性能模型和相应的指标体系,并构建了四川省盆地区玉米旱灾综合风险评估模型,确定了综合风险区划指标.结果表明:四川省盆地区玉米各项风险评估指标具有明显的区域差异和一定的连片性;玉米旱灾综合风险评价指标,可将四川省盆地区玉米种植区划分为高、中、低3个风险区,其中,风险高值区主要集中在盆西北大部、盆中及盆南部分地区,风险中值区主要分布在盆北及盆南部分地区,风险低值区主要分布在盆东北、盆西南及盆东南部分地区.
Based on the information of maize yield,phonological period,and related weather data,four models （those of climatic drought risk,crop drought risk,yield loss risk,and drought resistant capability） applicable for the assessment of maize drought risk in Sichuan Basin and the corresponding index systems were established,and a comprehensive model for assessing the maize drought disasters in the Basin was constructed,with the comprehensive index for the risk regionalization of the maize drought disasters determined.The values of the indices for assessing the maize drought risk in the Basin differed obviously with different regions,but showed similarity in some areas.The Sichuan Basin was divided into three regions,with high,medium and low maize drought risk,respectively.The region with high risk was mainly in the most areas of northwest basin,the middle basin,and parts of the south basin of Sichuan,the region with medium risk was in the north basin and some parts of the south basin,and the region with low risk was in the northeast and southwest basin,and parts of the southeast basin.
出处
《应用生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第10期2803-2811,共9页
Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology
基金
公益性(水利)行业科研专项(201001053)
四川省气象局重点项目(川气课题2011-预研-01)资助
关键词
玉米
干旱
风险评估指标
风险区划
maize
drought
risk assessment index
risk regionalization.
