摘要
基于台兰水文站2003—2005年观测的水文气象数据,通过参数率定和验证获得了适用于台兰河流域的HBV水文模型优化参数。应用RegCM3气候模式在IPCC SRES A1B情景下的预估数据,经Delta降尺度方法生成流域未来气候数据,并结合流域冰川退缩情景预估台兰河流域径流在21世纪中期(2041—2060年)和末期(2081—2100年)可能发生的变化。结果表明:在21世纪中期和末期,台兰河流域气温将显著上升,而降水变化不大;21世纪中期冰川3种可能退缩比例为15%、20%和25%,末期分别为20%、30%和40%;无论冰川处于哪一种退缩情景,21世纪径流较基准期(1981—2000年)都呈增加趋势,中期和末期最小增幅将分别为17.3%和18.6%;最大增幅可达45.9%和66.0%;耦合RegCM3气候模式预估增幅为28.9%和41.5%;台兰河流域未来径流年内分布与基准期大体相同,但又呈现出一定的差异性,具体表现为,在21世纪中期5月份径流增加很快,径流峰值出现在7月份,而到21世纪末期径流峰值出现在8月份。
The impact of climate change on local discharge is investigated in a glacierized high mountain catchment - the Tailan River basin in Tianshan Mountain region. Based on the hydrological and meteorological records at Tailan hydrologic station during 2003-2005, the optimum parameters in HBV model are obtained. Tailan River discharge is projected in the middle （2041-2060） and the end （2081-2100） of the 21 st century, based on downscaling of RegCM3 under SRES A 1B scenario and three scales of deglaciation. The results show that surface air temperature will significantly increase and there is no obvious change in precipitation in Tailan River basin in the two future periods. Three scenarios of glacier shrinkages are proposed at 15%, 20% and 25% in the middle, and 20%, 30%, 40% in the end of the 21st century, respectively. The discharge in Tailan River basin wilt increase under the glacier shrinkages, relative to the base period （1981-2000）. In detail, the minimum increase in discharge will arrive at 17.3% and 18.6% in the middle and the end of the century, respectively. The largest ones will arrive at 45.9% and 66.0%. A moderate increase in discharge will be 28.9% and 41.5% estimated by the HBV model coupled with RegCM3. The seasonal discharge in the two future periods shows the same variation as the base period. The discharge will quickly increase in May in the future two periods. The discharge peak will occur in July in the middle of this century and August in the end of this century. It can be concluded that climate warming and the induced glacier shrinkage will increase the runoff amount, and will finally result in the allocation of the water resources in the catchment.
出处
《气候变化研究进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第5期342-349,共8页
Climate Change Research
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-GJ04)
国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB951401)
西北师范大学青年教师科研能力提升计划项目(NWNU-LKQN-10-35)
关键词
径流预估
HBV模型
气候变暖
冰川退缩
台兰河流域
discharge estimation
HBV model
climate warming
glacier shrinkage
Tailan River basin
