摘要
依据2001～2010年我国西北苹果主产区的气象数据与苹果褐斑病(Marssonina coronaria)病害发生流行数据,构建了平均气温(T)、相对湿度(Hm)、风速(Ws)及地表温度(St)影响下苹果褐斑病的流行趋势预测模型,并利用多元回归分析方法建立了苹果褐斑病预测模型.结果表明环境因素严重影响苹果褐斑病的发生和流行,苹果褐斑病预测模型为:f(T,Hm,Ws,St)=1.317T+0.002Hm+0.047Ws+0.001St-11.885[f(T,Hm,Ws,St)为病情指数].苹果褐斑病发生的T为14℃～15℃,Hm为45%,Ws为13m/s,St为10℃.大发生条件为T为20℃～23℃,Hm在70%～90%之间,Ws为0m/s～2m/s及St为22°.
On the basis of long periods（2001-2010） detection of meteorological data and of the occurrence and prevalent tendency of Marssonina blotch in the primarily apple production areas of northwest China,models of predicting Marssonina blotch under effects of air temperature （T）,relative humidity（Hm）,wind speed（Ws） and suface temperature（St） established by multivariate regression analysis.Prediction model of Marssonina blotch was f（T,Hm,Ws,St） = 1.317T ＋ 0.002Hm ＋ 0.047Ws ＋ 0.001St-11.885 where f（T,Hm,Ws,St） indicated disease index. The modeling outcomes displayed that the Tfor the initial formation of Marssonina blotch in field was 14℃～15℃、14℃～15℃、Hm was 45%,Ws was 13m/s and St was 10℃.The disease would have an outbreak when the T,Hm,Ws and St came up to 20℃～23°、70%～90%, 0m/s～2m/s and 22℃,respectively.
出处
《生物数学学报》
CSCD
2012年第3期571-575,共5页
Journal of Biomathematics
基金
农业部公益性行业专项(nyhyzx07-051)
高等学校学科创新引智计划项目(B07049)
关键词
苹果褐斑病
预测模型
气象因素
Apple Marssonina coronaria
Prediction models
Meteorological factors
