摘要
本文利用劳动生产率方法和就业弹性法预测未来(2010-2020年)浦东新区经济高、中、低增长情况下,未来劳动力需求规模及人口结构。两种方法预测结论相互印证,浦东低速增长时,到2015年新浦东常住人口将达到435-470万人,外来常住人口达到130-170万人。在金融产业与航运产业的主导下,浦东新区将是进入新一轮增长中,将吸引更多外来劳动力人口进入。政府应当减少外来人口进入浦东的人为障碍,吸引相关产业的人才增加劳动力供给的稳定性。
This paper uses labor productivity and employment elestisity to forecast labor demand and population structure of Pudong New Area under the hypothesis of high,middle and low growth from 2010 to 2020. Both of these two methods prove that when Pudong New Area keeps low-rate growth resident population and external population will reach to 4.35-4.7 million and 1.3-1.7 million respectively. Under the leading of finance and shipping industry, Pudong New Area will keep growing and absorbing more external population. The government should reduce the obstructer and attract more experts of up-and-down- stream industry to maintain the stability of labor supply.
出处
《西北人口》
CSSCI
2012年第5期34-40,共7页
Northwest Population Journal
基金
国家社科基金重大项目"中国人口城市化低碳发展战略研究"(10ZD&032)
复旦大学研究生创新项目基金(EZH3548301)
关键词
劳动力需求
人口结构
劳动生产率
就业弹性
labor demand
population structure
labor productivity
employment elestisity
