摘要
根据温县2001～2011年怀山药产量数据与2004～2011年的气象数据,运用气象产量预测方法原理,分析了怀山药产量与气象因子的相关性,初步建立了怀山药产量预报模型。结果表明,怀山药产量对气象因子的变化敏感,预报模型拟合效果较好,预报准确率较高,预报模型对灾害性天气事件的识别能力有待于进一步提高。
According to the yield of Huai yam and meteorological data of Wenxian County from 2001 to 2011, the relationship between the yield of Huai yam and meteorological factors was analyzed by the theory of meteorological yield forecast, and the forecast model for yield of Huai yam was established preliminarily. The results showed that the yield of Huai yam was sensitive to the meteorological changes; the prediction model has good fitting effect and relatively high accuracy of prediction, but the recognizability of prediction model to disaster weather should be improved further.
出处
《湖南农业科学》
2012年第9期127-129,共3页
Hunan Agricultural Sciences
基金
河南省气象科学技术研究项目资助(Z201007)
关键词
怀山药
产量预报
气象因子
模型
Huai yam
yield forecast
meteorological factors
model
