摘要
基于混沌理论,利用关联积分法计算嵌入参数,重构水质指标时间序列相空间,采用Lyapunov指数判断水质指标时间序列的混沌特性,使用加权动态局域预测模型来预测水质。对洛河流域2008—2010年各月的水质指标溶解氧进行预测,并与实测值进行了比较,从相对误差来看,具有较高的精度。
The embedding parameter was calculated by correlation integral method;and the phase space of time series was reconstructed based on chaos theory.The chaos characteristic of the water quality indexed time series was recognized by Lyapunov exponent.And the water quality was predicted using weight-dynamic local prediction model.The dissolved oxygen in water of Luohe river basin in 2008—2010 was predicted and compared with recorded value.Form the aspect of relative error,the model was with high accuracy.
出处
《湖北农业科学》
北大核心
2012年第17期3726-3729,共4页
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
基金
河南省水利科技攻关计划项目(GG201122)
关键词
水质预测
混沌理论
相空间重构
chaos
phase space reconstruction
water quality prediction
