摘要
建立基于最大熵自助法的框架,讨论1981—2009年间中国的能源消费与经济增长的关系。首先进行双变量分析,研究表明能源消费与经济增长之间不存在显著的因果关系,然后在双变量框架下,引入了能源价格和汇率建立多元分析框架。在不同的滞后阶数以及不同的时间阶段得到了相同的研究结论,即中国的能源消费与经济增长不存在因果关系。所以能源消费于经济增长是中性的,实施节能减排政策并不会危害中国的经济增长。
This paper establishes a framework based on the maximum entropy method, to analysis the relationship between China＇s energy consumption and economic growth from 1981 to 2009. Compared with the traditional theory research methods based on the evolutionary, the result of this paper provide a more accurate and robust conclusions. The research analysis framework between energy consumption and economic growth by a bivariate firstly,the result shows that these have no significant causality, and then set up a multivariate framework, by introduce the energy prices and exchange rate. This multiple analysis framework research gets conclusions in different lag order number and with different time stage, and gets the same conclusions that China＇s energy consumption and economic growth does not exist causality.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
2012年第9期45-51,共7页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目<金融发展对能源消费的影响研究>(12YJC790115)
浙江省自然科学基金项目<浙江省外贸隐含碳排放变化的驱动因素研究>(Y7100544)
浙江农林大学青年教师创新团队科研项目<浙江省可持续发展视角下的能源效率能源需求问题的研究>(2010RC)
关键词
最大熵自助法
能源消费
经济增长
因果分析
the maximum entropy bootstrap, energy consumption, economic growth, causation analysis
