摘要
利用EViews6.0计量学分析软件,对江苏省过去21年的粮食供给和需求变动情况进行了统计分析,应用H-P滤波方法建立了粮食需求与供给的预测模型,结果显示,模型拟合精度非常高;对未来5年粮食供需的结果表明,粮食供需基本平衡,但是,随着人们粮食需求的不断增加,粮食安全将面临挑战,因此,提出了相应的对策建议以缓解粮食供需矛盾。
By using metrological analysis software EViews6.0, the author analyzed the grain supply - demand balance during the past 21 years in Jiangsu province, and established the grain supply and demand prediction model based on the application of H- P fil- ter method. The results showed that the simulative precision of the established model was very high. The predictive results of the grain supply - demand in the future 5 years indicated that the grain supply and demand was basically balanced; however, along with the con- tinuous increase in grain demand by the people, the food security would face a huge challenge. Therefore, the author put forward the relevant advices for alleviating the contradiction between grain supply and demand.
出处
《江西农业学报》
CAS
2012年第8期166-170,共5页
Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi
基金
国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAD20B00)
关键词
粮食供需平衡
H-P滤波
预测分析
建议
江苏省
Grain supply - demand balance
H - P filter
Forecast analysis
Suggestion
Jiangsu province
