摘要
利用雅安市1985—2009年的人口统计数据,拟合出马尔萨斯人口模型、Logistic增长模型和一元线性回归模型。通过2006—2009年人口数量的预测值与实际值比较,最终选择模拟精度较高的马尔萨斯模型和Logistic模型对雅安市2010—2020年的总人口做出预测,预测结果表明雅安市2010年的总人口达到156.21万人,而到2020年总人口将达到162.81万人。同时在预测的基础上,探讨了雅安市人口发展的影响因素,为雅安市科学地制定国民经济和社会发展战略,实现人口与资源环境的可持续发展提供参考。
In this paper,Malthus model,Logistic model and A linear regression model were fitted by the population statistics of Ya＇an City from 1985 to 2009 year,through the comparison between the predicted values and the actual value from 2006 to 2009 year,Malthus model and Logistic model which had the high precision were selected to predict the total population of Ya＇an City from 2010 to 2020 year.Prediction results showed that the total population of Ya＇an City in 2010 year will reach 1.562 1 million,and in 2020 year the total population will reach 1.628 1 million.At the same time,the influence factors of population development of Ya＇an City were investigated on the basis of the prediction.In order to provide reference for making the national economy and social development strategy,realizing population resourcing and environment sustainable development.
出处
《宁夏农林科技》
2012年第8期83-84,92,共3页
Journal of Ningxia Agriculture and Forestry Science and Technology
