摘要
采用1985年-2006年夏季天山乌鲁木齐河源区3个水文监测点（乌源1号冰J11水文点、空冰斗水文点与总控制水文点）的日平均径流资料和乌鲁木齐探空站逐日高空大气0℃高度资料，应用统计方法定性与定量相结合地分析了22年来该区域夏季0℃层平均高度变化和日平均径流变化趋势及其相关性。研究表明：1号冰川水文点的0℃层高度和日平均径流的相关性最好，且日平均径流的变化趋势滞后0℃层高度变化，其次是总控制水文点，空冰斗水文点的相关性最差；日平均径流与超前2。3d、持续3～4d的0℃层高度累积值之间的相关系数最大。最后选取1号冰川水文点相关系数最高的序列进行回归分析，日平均径流与0℃层高度之间呈指数函数关系，以0℃层高度为因子，建立了日平均径流的非线性一元回归模型。
Urumqi River originates in northern slope of the Tianger Range of Tianshan Mountains. Many previous studies pay more attention to the river runoff of Urumqi River rather than the impacts of the change of 0℃ isotherm height in summer on runoff. Therefore, based on the observed materials of daily 0℃ isotherm height in summer from meteorological stations and the average daily streamflow materials during 1985-2006 from three hydrological observation stations in the headwater of Urumqi River, the paper has analyzed the 0℃ isotherm height change and average daily runoff variety trend and its correlation with statistical methods. The results show that： 1） Streamflow of Glacier No.1 hydrological observation station, Ice-free Cirque hydrological observation station and Master Control hydrological observation station kept increasing during 1985-2006, and the trend rates of them are 0.007m^3/（s · a）, 0.005m3/（s · a） and 0.011m3/（s · a） respectively. At the same time, the average height of 0℃ isotherm increased by 7.917m/a. Besides, the average daily streamflow presents different change trends at the three stations; 2） The correlation between 0℃ isotherm height and average daily streamflow at Glacier No. 1 hydrological observation station is the best, but the change of the latter is lagging behind that of the former; Master Control hydrological observation station and Ice-free Cirque hydrological observation station respectively have the second and the worst correlation; 3） The correlation coefficient between the average daily streamflow and 0℃ isotherm height accumulated value under the condition of 2-3 days ahead and 3-4 days＇ continuing is the largest; 4） The best regression models are gained by using the time series of the 0℃ isotherm height and the average daily streamflow of the Urumqi River, and they present a relation of exponent function.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第8期1565-1573,共9页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41161012)
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(编号:NCET-10-0019)
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(编号:2010CB951003)
