摘要
我国西北地区是世界上气候变率较大的地区之一,其气候变化在中国、东亚及全球的气候变化中都占有重要地位。利用区域气候模式RegCM3,选取2种不同的水平分辨率30km和50km,对我国西北地区2001年夏季的温度和降水情况进行数值模拟,与同时段的实测资料进行对比,结果表明:模式基本能反映出西北地区温度和降水的变化情况,其中温度和降水的模拟效果均是在6月最差,并且在西北整个区域中,对于青海地区的模拟效果较差;在对气温的模拟中,分辨率的不同并没有对结果产生显著的影响,总体上模拟结果产生了系统性的冷偏差;对于降水的模拟中,模拟的不同区域对于分辨率的敏感程度不同,分辨率变化对于新疆地区的模拟影响最小,内蒙和宁夏地区所受影响较大,并且分辨率提高不一定会带来模拟结果的明显改善,不同区域在不同的月份对于分辨率改变引起的模拟偏差有所不同,内蒙7月,30km分辨率下模拟偏差为8.0%,50km的偏差为43.8%;宁夏8月,30km分辨率下模拟偏差为33.0%,50km的偏差为0.9%;在进行的西北地区夏季分辨率调整带来的温度和降水影响试验中,对于温度的模拟要优于对降水的模拟。
Northwest China is one of the areas with larger climate variability in the world, and its climate change plays an important role in China, East Asia and the world. At present, research on the influence of different resolutions of regional climate model on the simulated results of Northwest China is still rare. In this paper, we utilized the Regional Climate Model （RegCM3） with two different horizontal resolutions （30km and 50km） to simulate the temperature and precipitation in summer of 2001 in Northwest China, and the simulated results were compared with the observational data. Meanwhile, the influence of different resolutions on simulated results was discussed.The results show that the changes of temperature and precipitation in Northwest China during the summer have been roughly simulated by the model, and the simulated results are worst in June and in Qinghai; In the simulation of temperature, the difference of resolution has no significant influence on the results, and there is systematic cold bias in the mass; in the simulation of precipitation, the sensitivity of simulated precipitation to the model resolution varies with regions, with Xinjiang suffering the least influence from resolution changes, and Neimeng and Ningxia suffering more. What＇ s more, the increase of resolution doesn＇ t necessarily bring the significant improvement of simulated results, and the simulated bias of precipitation caused by resolution changes varies over different regions in different months; the simulated bias with horizontal resolution of 30km is 8.0% in Neimeng during July and the bias with resolution of 50km is 43.8% , while in Ningxia, the bias with resolution of 30km is 33.0% during August and the bias with resolution of 50km is 0.9%; in the sensitivity experiments of the influence of different resolutions on temperature and precipitation in Northwest China, the simulated results of temperature are better than those of precipitation. Therefore, the results of sensitivity experiments could provide a basic reference for resolution settings in climate simulation in Northwest China. However, there are still a lot of problems in simulation of RegCM3. We should minimize simulated bias and model uncertainty as much as possible by adjusting the parameter settings. In addition, the sensitivity experiments with longer time scale and more parameterization schemes should also be made.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第8期1422-1429,共8页
Resources Science
基金
国家环保公益性行业科研专项(编号:201109065)
关键词
REGCM3
分辨率
西北地区
温度
降水
RegCM3
Resolution
Northwest China
Temperature
Precipitation
