摘要
人口学界一直密切关注中国出生性别比失调问题,对导致这一问题的原因也进行了广泛的讨论。结合近年来我国出生性别比失调问题存在的不同认识和争论,借助于阿尔瓦罗.洛佩兹弱遍历性理论和贝克尔生育选择成本效用模型的分析框架,本文试图从微观层面分析中国出生性别比的变动趋势及变动原因。通过对1940-2010年中国出生性别比数据变动趋势的实证分析以及变动原因的解释,本文得出结论:中国现行计划生育政策与出生性别比失调间不存在直接因果关系;而要改善中国出生性别比失调的现状,改变农民、农村、农业的经济社会条件,增强农民的创新能力,推动农村及城镇贫困家庭从生产性生育偏好向享乐式生育偏好的转变是根本途径。
A large number of researchers pay great attention to the imbalance of SRB （Sex Ratio of Birth） and have made deep insights into its causes. After reviewing the studies and debates about this issue in China, with the help of theories of Lopez and Becker, we make our efforts to analyze SRB variation trend and its reasons from the microcosmic perspective. Through processing the 1940-2010 SRB Data in existence, I try to draw conclusions. The result of this study shows that there are no direct causality-consequences relationship between FPP （Family Planning Program） and the SRB Maladjustment, while in order to improve the situation of SRB Imbalance, it is necessary for the society to improve the circumstances of farmers, country and agriculture, and to strengthen the innovative capacity and convert the Poverty＇s productive -preference to consumption-preference. This is the key solution.
出处
《西北人口》
CSSCI
2012年第4期7-12,共6页
Northwest Population Journal
关键词
出生性别比
失调原因
计划生育政策
SRB Imbalance
Family Planning Program
Cost-Utility Model
