摘要
TRMM卫星降水数据较地面站点数据具有空间连续分布的技术优势。当前,利用TRMM时间序列数据开展区域同期降水趋势特征分析的研究还相对较少。本文以TRMM 3B43月降水时间序列数据为数据源,选取洞庭湖流域为实验区,采用气候倾向率的方法,对流域1998—2010年间10月份降水量的变化趋势进行分析。结果显示：在过去的10余年间,洞庭湖流域10月份降水总体呈现出一定程度的下降趋势,气候倾向率主要介于-101.09~32.67mm/10a之间,除岳阳、南县、常德一带降水表现为增加趋势外,其它地区则沿岳阳—常德—吉首—铜仁一线向两侧呈现出递减的趋势,其中流域东南部地区减少最为突出。经F检验,流域内大部分地区10月份的降水趋势显著性不高,并未通过显著性检验;只是在中南部地区,分别有0.22%、9.64%和16.59%的流域面积通过了α=0.01、0.05和0.1水平下的显著性检验。总体上,洞庭湖流域的实例应用表明,TRMM数据结合气候倾向率法可以对区域的同期降水变化趋势特征进行刻画,具有广泛的应用前景。
Compared with the ground rain gauge data, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） satellite precipitation data has a technical advantage of distributing continuously in space. Currently, there are still few researches which used the TRMM data time series to analyze regional synchronous precipitation change trend. Based on the monthly TRMM 3B43 precipitation data, this paper took the Dongting Lake basin as an experimental area and analyzed the basin＇s precipitation trend in October from 1998 to 2010 by using the linear climatic tendencies ratio method. The results showed that： in past twelve years, the basin＇ s mean precipitation in October to a certain degree took on a downtrend, and the range of climatic tendency ratio was from -101.09mm/10a to 32.67mm/10a. Except the regions of Yueyang, Nanxian and Changde where precipitation displayed an increasing trend, other areas perpendicular to the Yueyang- Changde - Jishou-Tongren line and along the both side directions all presented a gradually decreasing tendency, especially prominent in the southeast basin. In addition, the F-test indicated that there was not a significant trend for the October precipitation in most parts of the basin; only in the south-central parts, there were 0.22%, 9.64% and 16.59% basin areas which had the significant trends and passed the significance tests under α=0.01, 0.05 and 0,1 levels respectively. On the whole, the case study in Dongting Lake basin suggests that TRMM data combined with the linear climatic tendencies ratio method can be used to describe the characteristics of regional synchronous precipitation change tendency, and has a broad application prospect.
出处
《中国水利水电科学研究院学报》
2012年第2期98-104,共7页
Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
基金
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201001045
201001078)
关键词
TRMM
同期降水
趋势分析
洞庭湖流域
TRMM
synchronous precipitation
trend analysis
Dongting Lake basin
