摘要
该文利用 IAP L2 AGCM1 - 1模式进行 1 7年 ( 1 980～ 1 996年 )、每年 9个单个积分的集合后报试验 ,采用方差分析的方法对试验结果进行可预报性研究 .结果表明 :在热带地区 ,海表温度 ( SST)异常引起的可预报性较高 ,50 0 h Pa高度场高值区沿热带呈带状分布 ,在热带外仅有部分相对高值区 ;在中高纬度地区 ,春季的可预报性高于夏季 ;一般来说各场的可预报性海洋高于陆地 .在北太平洋春季 ,50 0 h Pa高度场、海平面气压场和表面气温场有一可预报高值区 .在中国区域 ,降水场、海平面气压场和表面气温场的可预报性从我国南海向西北递减 .
The study considers an ensemble of nine 17 year (1980~1996) hindcast experiments conducted with the first generation General Circulation Model (IAP L2 AGCM 1.1 ) of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics. Forced by prescribed SST, each experiment is run from Feb.15 to Aug.31. The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) technique is applied to the fields of 500 hPa geopotential height, sea level pressure (SLP), air temperature and precipitation. The results show that the predictability of atmospheric seasonal variations induced by SST anomalies is high in tropics and moderate in extratropics except some areas. In extratropics, the predictability is higher in spring (MAM) than in summer (JJA). In general, the predictability over ocean is higher than in land. In the North Pacific, there exists a region with high predictability for the fields of 500 hPa geopotential height, SLP and air temperature. As for China, the predictability decreases from the South China Sea to the northwest for the fileds of precipitation, SLP and air temperature.
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第A06期65-71,共7页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
基金
<国家重点基础研究发展规划> G1 9980 4 0 90 0项目第一部分
"九五"国家攻关课题!96-90 8-0 4 -0 1专题
国家自然科学基金项目
关键词
方差分析
可预报性
短期气候
数值预报
Ensemble hindcast experiments Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Predictability
