摘要
运用非线性科学的理论和方法,提出了一整套地质灾害预测预报的理论和方法,包括探索地质灾害发生前兆的加卸载响应比方法、地质灾害发生时间预测的协同学模型以及地质灾害区域预测评价的神经网络方法,并建立了基于GIS的地质灾害区域评价系统。同时,通过对向家坝水电站库区的崩滑地质灾害的统计分析,提出了地质灾害发生规模与发生频率间的幂律规则。
A series of theories and methods for predicting and forecast of geological hazards occurrence are proposed according to nonlinear science in this paper. They include that method of the load-unload response ratio which can be used to study the precursor of geological hazards occurrence, synergetic prediction model of time of geological hazards occurrence , artificial neural network method of regional evaluation of geological hazards. And a software of regional evaluation of geological hazards is developed based on geography information system (abbr. GIS). Moreover, The power law in landslides and rock fall geological hazards is obtained by statistical analysis.
出处
《山地学报》
CSCD
2000年第B02期112-117,共6页
Mountain Research
基金
国家自然科学基金(项目号:49702038)
地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家专业实验室开放基金联合资助
关键词
地质灾害
预测预报
区域评价
GIS
Geological hazards predicting and forecast regional evaluation geography information system power law
