摘要
水资源短缺风险的评价、等级的划分及其预测模型对促进城市水资源的高效利用、可持续发展等均具有重大意义。以北京市为例,依据其水资源特点,考虑其供需情况,提出了影响北京市水资源短缺的风险因子分别为人口规模、气候条件、管理制度、水体污染以及回收利用率,进而采用层次分析法、模糊综合评价及BP神经网络算法等理论,对北京市2011～2015年间水资源短缺风险进行了预测分析,并提出了缓解北京市未来水资源短缺风险的主要途径为合理控制人口规模和加强水资源管理。
The assessment of water resources shortage risk, the division of risk level and its prediction model can not only promote the efficient use of urban water resources, but also have great significance for sustainable development. Based on the characteristics of water resources in Beijing City, considering the supply and demand situation, we propose five risk factors that influence the risk of water resources shortage including population size, climatic conditions, manage- ment systems, water body pollution and recycling rate. And then AHP, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the BP neural network algorithm are applied to predict the risk of water resources shortage from 2011 to 2015 in Beijing City. Finally, it proposes that reasonable control of population size and the strengthening of water management are the major ways to ease the risk of water resources shortage in Beijing City.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2012年第7期17-20,86,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
辽宁省社科联2012年度辽宁经济社会发展立项课题基金资助项目(2012lslktzijjx-11)
大连市社会科学联合会基金资助项目(2011DLSK0310)
大连大学2011年创新教育基金资助项目(2011201)
关键词
水资源短缺风险
预测模型
层次分析法
模糊综合评价
BP神经网络算法
shortage risk of water resources
prediction model
AHP
fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method
BPneural network algorithm
