摘要
由不同类型、不同规模的"轮轴—辐条"结构组成的错综复杂的FTA网络成为区域经济一体化的新模式,相关国内外文献较少从微观视角涉及这种新模式的福利效应分析。本文在一般均衡垄断竞争模型基础上,分析了"轮轴-辐条"及其扩展结构下不同地位国家的福利和FTA收益以及影响因素。结果发现:(1)轮轴国与辐条国之间存在不对称收益,轮轴国取得的福利大于辐条国,轮轴有自我强化效应;(2)辐条拓补和多轮轴-辐条结构的福利分配情况复杂,受到产品替代性、贸易互补性、市场份额以及规模报酬递增水平等共同影响;(3)从轮轴-辐条结构进化到全球自由贸易将会增加辐条国的福利和贸易额,降低轮轴国的福利和贸易额。在深入考察FTA网络的构建及其稳定性基础上,墨西哥、韩国、日本、俄罗斯及南非是优先的可选FTA合作伙伴。
Using a general equilibrium model of monopolistic competition, this study aims to examine the welfare and its determinants of all FTA members in the ＂Hub-and-Spoke＂ system from a new economic geography perspective. The main findings are as follows. 1） asymmetric benefits are found across the hub country and the spoke countries. Particularly, the benefits of the hub countries are greater than those of the spoke countries~ 2） welfare distribution across the hub and spoke countries is complicated and is affected by various factors such as product substitutes, trade complements, degree of bilateral trade relationships, returns to scale, etc. ~ 3） The transition from the hub-spoke system to global free trade will increase the welfare and trade volume of the hub country, while decrease that of the spoke country. These findings have important policy implications for formulation and implement of China^s FTA strategy.
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第7期88-94,共7页
Finance & Trade Economics
