摘要
利用1956年1月1日至2008年12月31日环渤海15个地面测站观测资料,建立降水天气过程的时间序列,利用灰色预测模型法,对各站降水天气进行预测研究。为了提高预报准确率,对灰色预测模型进行了改进。通过不同长度时间序列建立灰色预测模型,从而排除时间序列长度对模型的影响;基于光滑比对灰色预测模型的影响,为提高时间序列光滑比,对时间序列进行函数变换;优化灰色预测模型。利用1956～2008年观测资料进行检验,实证分析结果表明:改进后的灰色预测模型降水过程预测准确率明显高于灰色预测模型,达到65%,对中长期降水预报具有一定的参考价值。
By using the data of 15 meteorological stations around Bohai Sea from January 1, 1956 to December 31, 2008, a time series of rainfall weather process was obtained, and then the grey prediction model was used to forecast rainfall weather. In order to improve the forecast accuracy, the grey prediction model was advanced in this paper. The grey prediction model was established through different length of time series to exclude the influence of length of time series on the model. Due to the impact of smooth ratio, functional transformation of the time series is done to improve its smooth ratio. In addition, the grey prediction model is also optimized. The improved model is inspected by the observation data from 1956 to 2008. Results indicate that the forecast accuracy of the improved model could reach to 65%, which implied that the improved model is an important reference to the forecast of medium and long -term precipitation forecast.
出处
《干旱气象》
2012年第2期272-275,共4页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
基金
2009年中国气象局气候变化专项项目"西北极端干旱事件个例库及干旱指标数据集"资助
关键词
灰色预测
环渤海地区
中长期降水预报
优化
准确率
grey prediction model
around Bohai Sea
medium and long - term precipitation forecast
optimization
accuracy
