摘要
中国宏观经济学会秘书长王建认为，中国经济目前最大的风险是生产过剩。目前为保增长采取的新一轮刺激措施，虽然可以暂时保增长，推迟这一危机爆发，但从长远的角度看，中国的生产过剩危机仍难以避免。
The biggest problem of Chinese economy is the lack of demand.The overstorage of flats can an be attributed to the Restrictions on the purchase,but why without the Restrictions on the purchase cars are in over-storage too now?Even moutai is on overstorage too,the price decreases from 1400 a bottle to 400 a bottle?It means the social wealth reduces,declines in revenue,declines in demand.This declines in demand even spreads to the rich.In this case,even if to release the restrictionof purchase,it is afraid that not so many people will buy the flats.The increase of the price of flats is based on the demand.The two external potential risks to restrict China's economic prospects,one is Greece now out of the euro,which makes Southern Europe shocked.The recession and tightening of European economy is now going further and it also affects China's exports to the EU.Another one is a new financial crisis in USA,which affects China's exports to USA.The derivatives of JPMorganChase & Co lost 30 billions dollars,which is only a small part of the lose of derivatives in USA.Once the financial institutions collapse,the lose of the derivatives which covered by them will cause the financial crisis.Wang jian thinks,even if the new policy can increase the domestic demand,but this part of demand may beat down by the external demand.So according to the case now,Wang jian forecasts that we need to see how will Chinese economy go in the year of 2013.
出处
《上海经济》
2012年第7期12-13,共2页
Shanghai Economy
