摘要
流行病学模型可作为动物疫病风险评估及防控策略制定的有力工具。论文介绍了流行病学模型的定义及其在动物疫病管理决策中的应用,讨论了模型的分类及建模的方法,重点阐述了动物疫病流行病学模型的构建步骤,包括建模系统和研究目标的确定、动物群体和疫病流行病学数据信息的收集、概念模型的构建、概念模型的确认、概念模型的公式化或编程、模型的验证、运行有效性的评估、敏感性分析、执行研究、输出结果的解释和交流。提出了一些建模的基本准则和应该着重考虑的问题,以期为动物疫病流行病学模型和风险评估预警研究提供参考。
Epidemiological models can be considered as a powerful tool in animal health policy development and disease prevention and control. In this paper, the definition of epidemiological models and their appli- cation in animal health policy development were described, and the classification of the model and modeling methods were also discussed. The epidemiological model steps of animal diseases, including： determination of the system to be modelled and the objectives of the study, collection of information and data on the ani- mal population and the epidemiology of infection and disease, development of a conceptual model, valida- tion of the conceptual model, formulation and/or program of the model, verification of the model, assess- ment of operational validity, analysis of sensitivity, conduction of studies, interpretation and communica- tion of outputs, were detailedly discussed. Finally, some of the considerations and guidelines that should be taken into account in designing a model were provided. This provides a good reference for the research on epidemiological models, risk assessment and early warning of animal diseases.
出处
《动物医学进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第7期104-108,共5页
Progress In Veterinary Medicine
基金
国家公益性行业(农业)科研专项计划项目(200903055)
关键词
动物疫病
流行病学
模型
animal disease
epidemiology
model
