马斯克林高压与华北盛夏降水的年际关系及其年代际变化被引量：5

The interannual relationship between Mascarene High and summer precipitation in North China and its interdecadal variability

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摘要利用NCEP/NCAR、ERA-40再分析资料和中国160站盛夏(7、8月)降水资料,使用相关分析、合成分析等方法,分析了马斯克林高压(马高)与华北盛夏降水的年际关系及其年代际变化。结果表明:马高与华北盛夏降水在年际时间尺度上存在显著的负相关关系,这种显著的负相关关系从1974年以后开始减弱。在强关系阶段(1951—1973年),马高与中国东部盛夏降水的显著负相关中心主要位于华北地区;在弱关系阶段(1974—2011年),马高与华北盛夏降水的负相关关系变弱,与长江中下游地区的正相关关系变强。导致马高与华北盛夏降水年际关系发生年代际变化的原因是:中国东部地区(不)受来自马高的异常偏南气流影响,使得华北盛夏降水偏多(少),两者关系偏强(弱)。马高与华北盛夏降水年际关系发生的年代际变化,是中国东部地区从20世纪70年代中期以后出现"南涝北旱"的原因之一。 Based on the NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40 reanalysis datasets and 160 stations precipitation data in China in summer （ July and August）, by means of correlation analysis, composite analysis and other methods, the interannual relationship between Mascarene High （MH） and summer precipitation in North China and it＇s interdecadal variability are analyzed. Results show that there is significant negative corre-lation between the MH and sunkrner precipitation in North China in interannual time scale and that this negative correlation relationship began to diminish since 1974. During the stronger period （1951-1973）, significant negative correlation center between the MH and summer precipitation over eastern China was mainly located in North China, while during the weaker period（ 1974-2011 ）, the negative correlation between the MH and summer precipitation over North China became weaker, and significant positive correlation center was observed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river. The cause for interdecadal variability between MH and summer precipitation in North China is as follows：when Eastern China is（not） influenced by the stronger anomalous south wind coming from MH, summer pre-cipitation in North China is more（ less）, and the relationship between MH and summer precipitation in North China is in stronger（weaker） period. The interdecadal variability of inter-annual relationship be-tween MH and summer precipitation in North China is one of the causes for the floods in Southeast Chi-na and droughts in Northeast China since the mid-1970s.

作者张婕武芳刘文菁刘海文

机构地区成都信息工程学院大气科学学院成都信息工程学院高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室安徽省六安市气象局江苏省气象局

出处《大气科学学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2012年第4期431-437,共7页 Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基金山西省科技发展计划项目(农业与社会发展部分)(20100311131) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(40890054 40975058) 重庆市气象局开放式研究基金项目(KFJJ-201102)

关键词马斯克林高压华北降水年际关系年代际变化南涝北旱 Mascarene High rainfall in North China interannual correlation interdecadal variability floods in Southeast China and droughts in Northeast China

分类号 P426.6 [天文地球—大气科学及气象学]