摘要
对全天山地震带总体活动特征的科学认识是中亚各国正确认识本国局部天山地震活动规律的重要前提。在收集了较完整的全天山地震目录资料的基础上 ,研究分析了全天山地震活动的韵律特征 ,发现全天山存在 10 0年左右的大震活动准周期和 50年左右的地震活动幕 ;对天山年折合震级时间序列的 AR谱分析和周期参数精估计证实了上述分析 ,并表明还可能存在与太阳黑子活动相关的周期。根据上述分析认为 ,天山在 2 0 0 0± 12年期间处于新一轮百年尺度大震活跃年份 ,同时在2 0 0 7年前处在 50年尺度地震活动幕中的 7级以上地震活跃时段 ;2 0 0 7年前天山仍可能发生多次 7级以上大震 ,最大可达 7.
Scientifically understanding general characteristics of seismic activity in total Tianshan belt is an important prerequisit for every country in Central Asia properly finding out the seismically active law in Tianshan in this country.In this paper,Tianshan wide seismicity rhythm is studied on the base of relatively integreted collection of earthquake catalogues in total Tianshan.It is found that in total Tianshan there is a quasi period about 100 years in the activity of major earthquakes and there are seismically active episodes about 50 years.The result from the period analysis of annual equivalent magnitude time series has proved above findings,and it also shows there may exist a period relative to sunspot activity.In accordance with these analyses,following conclusions can be drawn:Tianshan is in a new 100 year scale active period of major earthquakes during 2000±12,meanwhile,it is also in 50 year scale active episode of M≥7 earthquakes untill 2007; it is possible to occur many times of M≥7 earthquakes in Tianshan before 2007,and the maximum magnitude can be over 7.5.
出处
《内陆地震》
2000年第1期9-14,共6页
Inland Earthquake
基金
中国地震局九五科研项目!( 95-0 4 -0 9-0 3 -0 4 )资助
关键词
地震幕
全天山
地震
周期分析
地震活动
韵律性
Seismic episode\ Total Tianshan\ Earthquake\ Quasi period\ Active time interval\ Period analysis
