摘要
大规模开发风能资源,制定合理的风能发展策略,需要考虑风电系统自身的各个主要指标,并界定其中的关键影响因素。在系统分析的基础上,构建了风电系统动态方程,结合风电系统技术进步情况对系统参数进行了估计。以中国大规模开发风能潜力为例,对快速发展和中速发展2种战略下的风电系统各主要指标随时间变化情况分别进行了模拟和敏感性分析。研究表明:由于受工业技术进步水平的限制,风电设备的生产能力是影响不同发展战略成败的关键因素,而系统能耗、投资、成本和碳排放等指标则不会起决定性作用。
To develop wind energy sources in large-scale and draft rational wind energy development strategy,it is necessary to consider main indices of wind power system its own and define its key influencing factors.Based on the analysis on wind power system,dynamic equations of wind power system are constructed and taking the progress of wind power technology into account the parameters of wind power system are estimated.Taking the potential of large-scale development of wind energy in China for example,the simulation and sensitivity analysis of time-varying main indices of wind power system under two wind power development strategies,namely the rapid development and the development in medium-speed,are performed respectively.Research results show that restricted by the level of domestic industrial technology progress the production capacity of wind power generation equipments is the key factor influencing on the success or failure of different development strategies,and other indices such as energy loss of the system,investment,cost and carbon emission will not play a decisive role.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第7期184-190,共7页
Power System Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71103120)
上海市自然科学基金项目(09ZR1413100)
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(11YJC790295)~~
关键词
动态模型
风能开发
关键影响因素
情景模拟
敏感性分析
dynamic model
wind energy development
key influencing factors
scenario analysis
sensitivity analysis
