摘要
阐述了疏系数ARIMA(p ,d ,q)模型的建立方法 ,提出了适用于广西区普通日电力负荷预测的数据预处理方法 ,利用建立的动态ARIMA(p ,d ,q)模型顺利完成了对广西区普通日电力负荷 (每日 2 4个点 ,正点采集 )的预测 .全年日预测精确度均达到 95
The method of building ARIMA(p,d,q) model is expounded and the method about data pretreatment which is suitable for forecasting normal daily power load in GUANGXI area is presented at the same time; ARIMA(p,d,q)model has been successfully used to forecast normal daily power load. Precision of forecasting normal daily power load all year is better than 95%.
基金
湖南省自然科学基金资助项目 !( 99JJY2 0 0 1)
