摘要
该文使用中国海关进出口商品的面板数据研究了人民币实际有效汇率对中国大陆进出口相关行业贸易值的影响,即行业进出口的汇率弹性,并在测算中控制了国内外GDP的可能影响;在此基础上,该文针对不同行业进出口汇率弹性的差异,进一步分析了资本密集度对行业进出口汇率弹性的影响。结果表明:2002至2010年间18个行业大类的进出口汇率弹性均为负值,即人民币升值会对中国大陆外贸相关行业的出口和进口同时造成负面影响;进出口行业汇率弹性存在较大差异,行业的资本密集度越高,进出口受人民币升值的负面影响越大,资本劳动比率每上升1个标准差,进出口汇率弹性的绝对值会分别增加0.388和0.741。
Panel data from the Chinese Customs was used to calculate the impact of the RMB effective exchange rate on imports and exports for different industries,with both domestic and foreign GDP as control variables.The results show that the exchange rate elasticities for imports and exports for 18 industries were all negative from 2002 to 2010,which means that the appreciation of the RMB had a negative effect on both imports and exports of China's Mainland.The exchange rate elasticity varies widely across industries,with higher capital intensive industries,seeing stronger impacts of the RMB appreciation on their imports and exports.The exchange rate elasticity of imports increases 0.388 and of exports increases 0.741 in absolute values with a one standard deviation increase in the capital-labor ratio.
出处
《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第6期864-868,共5页
Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71041017)
关键词
进出口汇率弹性
面板数据模型
资本密集度
exchange rate elasticities for imports and exports
panel regression
capital intensity
