摘要
利用kernel密度估计方法考察了京津冀都市区1995-2007年经济分布演化过程,在此基础上,引入经济增长分布模拟模型进一步模拟研究了其经济增长驱动力的作用效应。研究发现:①京津冀都市区经济增长分布形态经历了"双峰状"→"单峰状"→"双峰状"的演化过程。②资本深化、技术效率、技术进步和空间依赖效应对京津冀都市区经济增长起显著作用。③资本深化和技术效率对京津冀都市区经济增长分布演化起重要作用,而技术进步、空间外溢效应和误差分布效应则没有显著的作用。④资本深化分布的变化和技术效率综合作用效应的变化是影响京津冀都市区经济分布演化的驱动力,并通过资本深化的分布效应和技术效率的综合作用效应这两个渠道对其经济分布演化产生影响。⑤对京津冀都市区经济增长起作用的因素不一定能够影响到其经济分布的演化,基于分解技术的经济增长分布模拟模型,并利用理论分布和实际分布差异性的统计检验可以识别真正影响其经济分布演化的因素及其作用渠道。
The evolution of economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region （short for BTHMR） are simulated using Kernel density estimation based on the data of the population, capital invest- ment, and GDP of 140 county-level sub-regions of BTHMR in 1995-2007. And further its driving forces are simulated using spatial lag models based on the variables, such as capital deepening, technological efficiency and technological progress, which derived from the DEA and Malmquist index models, in different periods. Several conclusions are drawn as follows： 1） The shape of economic spatial distribution have changed signifi- cantly, from two peaks in 1995 to one peak in 2001, then, two peaks again, with a bigger and bigger gap be- tween poor sub-region groups and rich ones, which indicates that the BTHMR had undergone a change from convergence to club convergence. 2） Capital deepening, technological efficiency, technological progress and spatial dependence play important roles in the economic growth of BTHMR. 3） Capital deepening and techno- logical efficiency have statistically significant impacts on the economic spatial distribution evolution while the spatial dependence and technological progress have not although they both were important driving forces in economic growth. The distribution change of capital deepening and the increasing importance of technological efficiency have contributed to the economic distribution evolution rather than the increasing importance of cap- ital deepening and the distribution change of technological efficiency. The results indicate that the distribution effects of capital deepening and coefficient effects of technological efficiency had become the channel, through which capital deepening and technological efficiency changed the economic distribution evolution.
出处
《地理科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第5期550-556,共7页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40671054)资助
关键词
kernel密度估计
经济增长分布
空间依赖效应
京津冀都市区
kernel density estimation
economic growth distribution
spatial dependence effect
Beijing-Tian- jin-Hebei Metropolitan Region
