摘要
运用系统动力学理论与方法,以福建省为例,站在复杂系统理论的高度建立SD模型,在选择模型变量并构建因果关系图和流图的基础上,根据相关历史数据,借助Vensim PLE软件进行动态仿真,对福建省综合交通运输投融资系统的资金需求与资金供给的变化趋势进行了预测,并验证了模型的有效性。检验结果表明,所构建的SD模型能较好反映资金需求与资金供给的平衡关系,可用于交通系统资金需求与资金供给等领域的分析及预测,可为科学、合理制定综合交通运输投融资规划提供参考。
The investment and financing plan of integrated transport is a dynamic system which is formed by the capital requirements and capital supply of transportation system in together.This article is based on the Fujian province reality,creates a system dynamic model with standing on the height of the complex systems＇ theories,simulates dynamically with Vensim PLE software,and provides decision-making references for making the investment and financing plan of integrated transport.
出处
《太原理工大学学报（社会科学版）》
2012年第2期30-33,共4页
Journal of Taiyuan University of Technology(Social Science Edition)
关键词
交通运输
系统动力学
投融资规划
transport
system dynamics
the investment and financing plan
