摘要
本文利用新开放经济宏观经济学方法,构建了货币国际化对宏观经济影响的理论模型,从理论上分析了货币国际化对宏观经济短期和长期的影响。理论研究表明,货币国际化具有以下影响:①无论在短期还是长期,都将促使本国货币升值,但汇率未出现超调现象;②短期内刺激本国消费,长期内抑制本国消费;③短期内产出减少,长期内产出增加;④短期内改善贸易条件,长期内使贸易条件恶化;⑤无论短期还是长期,都将改善本国居民福利水平。在此基础上,基于结构VAR模型,利用美元经验数据实证分析了美元国际化对美国宏观经济的影响,实证结果表明:经验分析与理论研究结果高度一致。上述研究结论为人民币国际化提供了若干启示。
Based on the model of new open economy macroeconomics（NOEM）,this paper analyses the short-term and long-term impact of currency internationalization to domestic economy.We find that currency internationalization have the following effects：（1）The home currency will appreciate in both short term and long term,no exchange rate overshooting appears;（2） Domestic consumption is stimulated in short term but inhibited in long term;（3） The level of domestic output reduces in short term but increases in long term;（4） Terms of trade improves in short term but worsen in long term;（5） Welfare improves in both short term and long term.After that,a SVAR model is built on the NOEM model.By the data of U.S.Dollar,We analyze the impact of U.S.dollar internationalization to U.S economy.There is a high consistent between empirical analysis and theoretical analysis.By these conclusions,we point out some possible problem must be highly concerned in the RMB internationalization.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第5期23-33,共11页
Statistical Research
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目(批准号:11CTJ003)资助
关键词
宏观经济
货币国际化
人民币国际化
新开放经济宏观经济学
Macroeconomic
Currency Internationalization
RMB Internationalization
New Open Economy Macroeconomics
