摘要
日本松干蚧是危害松树的重要害虫,越冬期气象条件是影响种群变动的重要因子。利用判别法,选取对日本松干蚧越冬死亡率影响较大的气象因子,并分析这些因子对越冬死亡率的影响。结果表明,11月各旬平均最低气温、12月下旬平均最低气温、3月上旬平均最低气温越低,日本松干蚧越冬死亡率越高;4月上旬降水量越大,其死亡率越高。选择资料时间序列较长且与日本松干蚧越冬死亡率相关密切的气象因子,建立了日本松干蚧越冬死亡率预测模型,经检验,模型准确率72%左右,对于监测及防控日本松干蚧具有一定应用价值。
Matsucoccus matsumurae is the main pest endangered the pine. Meteorological condition of overwintering pe- riods is the important factor of affecting population change. The effect of meteorological factors on Matsucoccus mat- sumurae＇ mortality rate of overwintering was analyzed by using discriminate analysis, based on the selected meteoro- logical factors. The results showed that the lower the average lowest temperature of every ten-day period of November, the last ten-day period of December and the first ten-day period of March was, the higher mortality rate was. The more rainfall of the first ten-day period of April was, the higher the mortality rate was. The prediction model of Matsucoccus matsumurae＇ mortality rate during overwintering was established by selecting meteorological factors, which has a direct bearing on Matsucoccus matsumurae＇ mortality rate and with longer statistic years, and the accuracy rate was 72%. The model could be used for preventing and controlling Matsucoccus matsumurae.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第2期310-314,共5页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项"森林草原病虫害气象预报与灾损评估技术"(GYHY200906028)
中国自然基金"气候变化对日本松干蚧扩散影响研究"(41175100)
关键词
日本松干蚧
越冬期死亡率
气象条件
Matsucoccus matsumurae
Overwintering mortality rate
Meteorological condition
