摘要
本文在相关资料基础上,对我国城镇居民持有金融资产与实物资产进行了重新核算,并采用ARDL-UECM模型计量分析了长短期内金融资产、实物资产对消费影响的差异性。结果表明:金融资产长期内对消费支出存在较弱的抑制作用,短期内存在较弱的促进作用;而实物资产长期内对消费存在有限的促进作用,短期内对消费存在较强的促进作用。产生这种差异的原因主要是:超额比重预防性储蓄导致金融资产对居民消费产生长期扭曲,以及过高自有住房率在房价攀升时只能提高短期边际消费倾向,长期则有限。现阶段只有降低超额比重预防性储蓄及抑制过高的房价才能进一步提高城镇居民的资产财富效应。
Based on the relevant information, this paper recalculated the assets held by urban residents of China. We developed the ARDL- UECM model to econometrically analyze the different impact on consumption between financial and real assets of urban residents during the long and short run. Financial assets produced weak inhibition, and weak promoting role respectively, and real assets produced limited and strong promoting role respectively during the long and short run. The cause of the main difference is that large proportion of savings deposits formed consumer＇ s long - run distortions from financial assets; and the high ratio of owner - occupied housing assets will only increase consumer＇ marginal propensity in the short - run, limited in the long - run. To reduce the excess proportion of precautionary savings and inhibit excessive prices of real estate is the only way to further improve asset wealth effect of urban residents at this stage.
出处
《经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第3期93-101,共9页
Economic Review
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"经济景气消费函数模型及应用--基于参数
非参数的计量分析"(项目编号:11YJC910008)
华侨大学人才引进科研启动费项目"非线性居民消费敏感度模型"(项目编号:11BS116)的资助
