摘要
天然气勘探项目评价中 ,常规经济评价是不可缺少的步骤 ,而风险分析也是一个重要的、不可忽视的环节。因为投资者们不仅关心其投入的资金可带来多少收益 ,同时更关心这部分投入资金的安全性 ,如不能如期收回 ,那损失的概率有多大。所以 ,如何定量测定风险的大小以使投资者明白其资金损失的概率是多少 ,并以此为根据及时作出相应的可行的决策 ,是评价工作者和投资者极为关心的问题。文章从“风险”的概念入手 ,尝试以概率论、中心极限定理、最优统计估计量的定义和经济理论为基础 ,结合天然气勘探项目的具体情况 ,推导出了定量测定风险的公式。最后以实例具体说明了该公式的运用 ,以及定量风险分析的重要性。
In the evaluation of natural gas exploration project,the conventional economic evaluation is an absolutely necessary link and the risk analysis is an important and non negligible link too.Because the investors are interested not only in the amount of the income brought by their investment,but also and still more in the safety of their investment,namely,if the investment can not be recovered by the scheduled time how much is the probability of loss?For this reason,quantitatively determining the degree of the risk to make the investors to understand how much the probability of loss is and,based on which,making a corresponding feasible decision in time is a problem of interest to both investors and evaluation workers.In this paper,starting with the concept of risk,trying to take the theory of probability,central limit theorem,definition of optimal statistic estimate and economic theory as the basis and according to the concrete situation of the natural gas exploration project,the formula to quantitatively determine the risk is derived.Finally,the application of this formula and the importance of the quantitative risk analysis are expounded in the concrete by way of example.
出处
《天然气工业》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第2期98-100,共3页
Natural Gas Industry
关键词
天然气勘探
风险分析
投资
统计分析
勘探项目
Natual gas exploration,Risk analysis,Income,Investment,Statistical analysis
